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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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