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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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