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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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