We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
|
|
|
Showing 1376 to 1380 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
