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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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