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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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