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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal prices and adding order uncertainties for exporters, Fitch Ratings and CRU say. Miners from Australian and Indonesia are the most exposed, but the credit impact is muted thanks to sufficient rating headroom as we have already incorporated a downward pricing trend in our rating assumptions.
The Chinese coal market’s tightness has eased due to a combination of weaker demand and improved domestic supplies. Chinese coal demand has declined as residential power consumption reduced at the end of the winter heating season in mid-March and hydro supply increased in south China due to heavy rains. Chinese domestic coal supply has gradually improved in recent quarters as the pace of capacity closures has slowed and incremental capacity has been expedited to bring down fuel costs, according to CRU. Inventories at the six main power producing groups edged up to 16.0 million tonnes in late March, 13% higher than the average for 2018 of 14.1 million tonnes.
Growing domestic supply is likely to prompt the Chinese government to tighten control over thermal coal imports. This would imply higher order volatility and risks for seaborne coal suppliers targeting the Chinese market, which are mainly miners in Australia and Indonesia. The Chinese government appears to have adopted an on-and-off importing policy since 2017 by implementing stricter checks when domestic supply is sufficient and speeding up clearing when domestic supply is tight. Australian coal cargoes, for example, have been facing increasing delays clearing customs at Chinese ports since February, according to CRU.
While seaborne coal remains price competitive compared to domestic coal, risks of long clearing time and import bans may discourage Chinese consumers from using seaborne coal, especially when domestic supply is sufficient.
Australian coal producers are likely to face the risk of order cancellation, and to some degree, be forced to compete for sales in alternative countries. This may lead to weak prices in the seaborne market, especially for the mid-content-value coal of around 5,500kcal/kg that Chinese importers typically buy from Australia.
Imports from Indonesia have been less affected by the recent Chinese controls, according to press reports, although Indonesian producers are still likely to come under pressure to find new markets due to overall declining Chinese demand for seaborne coal, as well as increasing Indonesian domestic output, and weaker-than-expected domestic demand.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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