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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevailing topics as of late. From the start of this month the BDI has eased back to below 700bp and having recorded throughout this period an average of 624bp, there is little room for any bullish views to be portrayed at this point.
According to Allied research analyst, Thomas Chasapis, the focus now, is as to what sort of contagion the recent trends are having on other parts of the dry bulk market.
Allied latest report says let’s have a quick look at the paper market, with its portrayal of a steep reverse in sentiment and the new market “standard” which is prevailing right now. In the Capesize segment the FFA 5TC-average index figure for the remaining 2019 is now roughly at US$ 11,200 pd, while just at the end of the previous year, the figure was in the region of US$ 16,304 pd, a decline of 31.3%. Taking the same comparison for the other main size segments, the trend is fairly similar. For the 4TC-average of the Panamax, the decline was 13.4%, for the 10TC-average for Supramaxes was 7.5%, and finally, the Handysize TC average had a downward correction of 10%. If these corrections seem “petty” (except maybe that of the Capesize), just imagine where these numbers would be if we hadn’t witnessed this last 2-week mini rally in the freight market for the Panamax (+16.3%), Supramax (+62.9%) and Handysize (+23.9%).
Thomas Chasapis noted, many would argue that the FFA market is not the best reflection of forward sentiment for the actual freight market, with the argument being that a different set of drivers influence FFAs, some of which are not core fundamentals of the actual freight market. In any case, taking new-building activity as a secondary indicator as to forward sentiment the overall picture seems to be relatively the same. Looking at the past 3-months, total new contracting activity for the dry bulk segment as a whole in terms of tonnage capacity was 6.12MMdwt. While during the same period one year back, the equivalent figure was 13.1MMdwt, indicating a drop of 53.3%. Certainly, the main share in this decline is mostly attributed to the Capesize segment, which in fact truly has the most problematic and puzzling outlook for the time being. Notwithstanding this, even if we take as an assumption that most interested parties have already adopted a more conservative attitude, the slide in terms of new investments is still clearly apparent.
As a final key measure as to the prevailing forward sentiment we could also take a peek at what we have seen in the Sale & Purchase market as of late. In the year so far, we are a seeing a drop of 37.8% in terms of number of transactions taking place compared to the same period back in 2018, while in terms of total tonnage capacity this drop amplifies to 40.4%, also reflecting in part the shift in preference towards the smaller size segments. Moreover, if it wasn’t for the robust activity noted in the Panamax segment, nourished in part by the plethora of sales candidates circulated as of late in the market, we would be facing a significantly bigger drop. So, given that there isn’t the necessary optimism and/or appetite to push things further at this point, there is a general lack in confidence to push for any “bargain” hunting either. The correct description here therefore seems to be a that of a market in a “stand still”, something that may well prove to be more perilous than a market that has a clear direction even if that direction is one of a downward spiral.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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