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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
EIACoal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal exports. Appalachian region coal production, based largely on the strength of growth in coal exports, increased for the second year in a row, but Interior and Western region production declined by 5% and 3% in 2018, respectively. In both 2019 and in 2020, EIA expects total U.S. coal production to decline by 3% and 7%, respectively, because of anticipated declines in both exports and domestic consumption. The 2020 forecast production of 680 MMst would be the first time annual production totaled less than 700 MMst since 1978.
 
Coal Consumption
EIA estimates that coal consumption in the electric power sector for 2018 declined by 24 MMst (4%), despite a 4% increase in overall electricity generation. EIA expects power sector coal consumption to decline by 52 MMst (8%) in 2019 and by 44 MMst (7%) in 2020. The decrease in power sector consumption reflects increasing shares of electricity generation from both natural gas and renewable energy sources.
 
Coal Trade
The United States, with excess coal production and export terminal capacity, is a swing supplier of coal to the global market. When market conditions are favorable (high global coal prices, low shipping costs, disruptions in supply from other exporters, and/or increased demand from major consumers), U.S. coal exports often expand. However, exports often contract with a reversal of these market factors. EIA estimates that U.S. coal exports were 116 MMst in 2018, 20% higher than the amount exported in 2017, marking the fourth time on record that annual exports exceeded 110 MMst. EIA expects that some market conditions that favor U.S. coal exports will diminish and forecasts that coal exports will decline to 102 MMst in 2019 and to 94 MMst in 2020.
 
Despite EIA’s overall forecast decline in U.S. coal exports, exports to Asia, particularly to India, Japan, and South Korea, are expected to remain strong. Exports to these three countries accounted for 33% (29 MMst) of the coal exported in 2018 through September coal exported in 2018 through September. Coal exports to other countries/regions have also increased recently. U.S. coal exports to North Africa, particularly Egypt and Morocco, have risen, and they accounted for 7% of total exports in 2018 through September. Comparatively, coal exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for 9% of total exports during the same period.
 
Coal Prices.
EIA estimates the delivered coal price to U.S. electricity generators averaged $2.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018, which was 1 cent/MMBtu higher than the 2017 price. EIA forecasts that coal prices will be close to the same in 2019 and in 2020.


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