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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state of extreme bullishness to bearish in no time at all. Not long-ago, statements like robust sentiment, modest order-book, sustainable fleet development, robust global economic growth and seaborne trade were some of the favorites topics discussed by most optimists in the market, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping in his latest report.
But now, given that the scene has changed completely, and the upward momentum has faded away, what can we expect from the blurry picture presented in front of us?
According to Thomas Chasapis, at the beginning of September, a mere breath before the start of the final quarter of 2018, the exuberance was become apparent in the paper market, given that contracts reached levels of even above US$ 26,000/day for the average of the BCI-5TC for 4th quarter period. At that time, and given that the previous year, for the same time frame, the actual market managed an average figure in the region of US$ 22,700/day and the market was already on an upward path throughout 2018, the level being discussed seemed rather fair to most.
He further noted that, things were already turning sour however in October, with earnings averaging out at US$ 18,600/day and it quickly becoming obvious that the Capesize segment wasn’t going to carry out its promise as originally thought. But things didn’t stop there, and from the start of this month the overall segment was on a sharp downward spiral, reaching even at levels that brought back memories of the collapse in the dry bulk sector of 2016. So, to the very least we can say that the market is in a “weird” state. The FFA market is now in a state of turmoil, showing steep corrections in respect to forward returns, even for very forward contracts. On a month-on-month basis, volatility for Capes has skyrocketed by almost 184% (using the BCI benchmark index), breaking a long period of convergence towards a more stable state.
Yet what must be stated is that it would be prudent not to rush back into an overly bearish tone, on the back of just recent trends in the dry bulk freight market. It is important to mention that other segments haven’t shows this kind of softening in their average figures. Both the Panamax and Supramax indices witnessed a decline of just below 14% in their mean on a month-on-month comparison. So, given the influential attribute of the Capesize to the overall sector, the impressive resistance seen in the smaller sub-segments can be translated in two different ways, either that there are strong fundamentals able to bear periodical negative shifts (i.e. minor bulk commodities are holding better), or we are speaking of an isolated and over exaggerated incident and the market will recover back to normality fairly quickly. For the time being the market is once again covered in shrouds of uncertainty, with most interested parties having already altered towards a more conservative attitude.
All-in-all, given that we are in a strong seasonal point in the year, we would expect that a swift recovery could take place, with the overall market, although, most probably finishing the year at mediocre levels given the extent of the downturn noticed these past weeks, Research Analyst of Allied shipping concluded.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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