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Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG export projects over the previous two years due to market expectations of oversupply, higher demand during Asia's summer and winter periods and rising oil prices, with LNG contracts typically linked to oil price benchmarks with a three- to six-month lagged effect.
 
LNG demand should also be supported across the Asia-Pacific region by rising energy usage and a government-supported switch to natural gas from coal to curb air pollution. Most of the region's demand growth has come from China, which is now the second-largest global LNG importer, behind Japan. Chinese government policy encouraging a switch to gas for winter heating led demand to rise by 46.4% in 2017, with further growth in 2018. This should support further investment in LNG over the next two years, with the market potentially entering a deficit in 2022-2025. 
 
The ongoing trade war between China and the US, with China placing an initial 10% tariff on US LNG, may delay further investment in US projects and limit US export volume to China. However, China only accounted for 15% of US LNG exports over 2017 and Fitch expects US cargos to be redirected to other markets should exports become uncompetitive. We believe the ongoing impact will be limited, as Chinese importers had already cut purchases of US natural gas in the previous few months. PetroChina Company Limited (A+/Stable) had also signed a long-term LNG contract with Qatargas in September 2018, which should mitigate the loss of US imports. 
 
Trade tensions may slow further investment in US LNG facilities, but globally, several major LNG projects have either been greenlit or moved towards final investment decision (FID). We do not expect new projects to deliver their first cargos until around 2022, as LNG projects typically take around four to five years from FID to first cargo delivery. 


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