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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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