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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Ratings says.
Market expectations of oversupply and weak gas prices have curtailed new investment activity in the sector in the past two years. Limited capacity additions beyond 2020 should be positive for spot prices, especially in Asia and Europe. This will benefit LNG projects with significant uncontracted volumes and those linked to gas spot prices.
An unprecedented wave of new projects becoming operational in 2016-2019 has not resulted in, and is unlikely to result in a material surplus in the LNG market in the medium term. Additional LNG volumes continue to find a home across a diverse array of countries and new buyers, and under more flexible contracts.
Funding for new LNG capacity is often structured as non-recourse project finance and is dependent on sponsors’ ability to secure long-term offtake agreements, which buyers have been less willing to sign in anticipation of larger volumes of uncontracted LNG coming to the market. Therefore, sponsors may need to commit a higher equity contribution to get funding for LNG projects, which will continue to delay final investment decisions (FIDs) for some time. A typical timeframe for a new LNG project to become operational following the FID is four to five years. Due to limited new FIDs very few new projects will come on stream in the early 2020s. FIDs in the next one to two years are likely to be limited to projects with lower capital and operating costs given constraints on the funding side.
We expect gas demand to continue its robust growth in the coming years, mostly driven by Asian markets that account for two-thirds of overall LNG demand. This is due a combination of healthy power demand growth in the region, natural gas being the fossil fuel of choice in pursuit of curbing air pollution, and the backlash against nuclear energy. Japan is currently the largest LNG importer, but China is catching up quickly and becoming the major market for LNG.
The LNG market could shift into deficit by 2022-2025. Gas pricing is therefore likely to improve in the major importer markets, benefiting LNG projects relying on spot and hub pricing and entities with significant LNG trading portfolios. We also expect oil companies to gradually return to their earlier LNG ambitions. This includes oil majors, like Shell, BP and Total, most of which emphasise the growing role of gas in the global energy mix.
The LNG market is still in its formative stage. Pricing mechanisms, contract terms and financing structures continue to evolve. Long-term oil-linked contracts are giving way to increased trading activity, which represented around a quarter of all new contracts in 2017, according to IGU World Gas LNG Report, compared to just 1% in 2012. New large LNG projects still rely on long-term contracts in order to secure financing. However, elsewhere contracts are becoming shorter, and the quality of counterparties is declining. Contract prices are increasingly de-linked from oil pricing with a growing focus on spot and hub-based gas pricing.
Fitch-rated rated LNG projects will not be significantly affected by the trend towards increasing commoditisation. In the US, rated projects, such as Cameron LNG and Sabine Pass, benefit from robust contractual frameworks that provide mitigation to completion risks and often employ tolling or tolling-like arrangements that protect cash flows from volume and price risks. RasGas in Qatar mostly relies on long-term oil-linked contracts.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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