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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing days lay ahead.
In the year to date earnings have followed much in line with the troubled levels that were being noted a year prior. The main difference was that this year we were starting to get “good vibes” as to the prospects of both trade and fleet development moving forward George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations in Allied shipping says in his latest weekly report.
In terms of trade, the steps that were slowly being taken by OPEC and Russia, namely to ramp up their production levels, were already starting to pay dividends on some routes. At the same time the Fracking revolution in the US has already helped shift trade patterns in such a way that each extra tonne of crude oil being shipped on average adds for considerably increase in tone-mile against what it would be adding a couple of years back. He further noted that, given that most of the foreseeable consumption growth is seemingly being generated from Far Eastern economies, the significance of this latter point gains further traction and weighting when looking at expectations of how trade will evolve moving forward. Just to put a few figures to mind, the Asian Pacific and African regions have shown a 31.1% and 32.1% increase in crude oil consumption over the past decade according to the latest figures provided by BP’s statistical review, while in comparison Europe and North America have shown a decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% during the same time frame.
According to George Lazaridis , in the case of the Asian Pacific region this growth rate is ever more significant given that the region now holds a 35.6% share of global crude oil consumption (Africa on the other hand still takes up a mere 4.2%) marking it close to on par with the combined share of 39.8% taken up by Europe and North America. The trend therefore seems to be ever more Eastbound for trade flow in this sector, while given that the US is now being poised as becoming a strong export player, the recent trend noted in terms of tonne-mile increases, is likely to further bolster over the coming years.
On the other side of the equation, we had been witnessing a relative improvement in the overall crude oil tanker fleet development over the past 6 months. The total fleet of crude oil tankers has decreased by around 0.4% during the first 6 months of the year, mainly thanks to the extensive ship recycling activity undertaken and the relatively “soft” newbuilding delivery schedule that was at hand. With this trend likely set to continue on for at least the near-term, especially in the case of newbuilding deliveries where things have eased off further, the freight market should find a relative balance even under the pessimistic scenario that we see a minimal growth rate emerge in terms of trade.
Given that there are still a fair number of indicators pointing to an improvement in trade volumes for the near term, there should in theory be reasonable room for a fair spike in freight rates to take place in the final quarter of the year. Granted that the recent trade disputes that have arisen between the US and China have dampened hopes by a certain degree, but the overall trend is still there and given that OPEC and Russia are still looking to be committed to their goal of increasing their production levels, this should help generate an ever-increasing flow of crude to the East.
At the same time, it is important to take note that there still seems to be a wave of new refinery capacity set to come online in China (Asia’s largest consumer) while it is important to note that the countries oil refinery throughput had risen by 8.2% y-o-y in May.
- George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, Allied Shipping -
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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