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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing days lay ahead.
In the year to date earnings have followed much in line with the troubled levels that were being noted a year prior. The main difference was that this year we were starting to get “good vibes” as to the prospects of both trade and fleet development moving forward George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations in Allied shipping says in his latest weekly report.
In terms of trade, the steps that were slowly being taken by OPEC and Russia, namely to ramp up their production levels, were already starting to pay dividends on some routes. At the same time the Fracking revolution in the US has already helped shift trade patterns in such a way that each extra tonne of crude oil being shipped on average adds for considerably increase in tone-mile against what it would be adding a couple of years back. He further noted that, given that most of the foreseeable consumption growth is seemingly being generated from Far Eastern economies, the significance of this latter point gains further traction and weighting when looking at expectations of how trade will evolve moving forward. Just to put a few figures to mind, the Asian Pacific and African regions have shown a 31.1% and 32.1% increase in crude oil consumption over the past decade according to the latest figures provided by BP’s statistical review, while in comparison Europe and North America have shown a decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% during the same time frame.
According to George Lazaridis , in the case of the Asian Pacific region this growth rate is ever more significant given that the region now holds a 35.6% share of global crude oil consumption (Africa on the other hand still takes up a mere 4.2%) marking it close to on par with the combined share of 39.8% taken up by Europe and North America. The trend therefore seems to be ever more Eastbound for trade flow in this sector, while given that the US is now being poised as becoming a strong export player, the recent trend noted in terms of tonne-mile increases, is likely to further bolster over the coming years.
On the other side of the equation, we had been witnessing a relative improvement in the overall crude oil tanker fleet development over the past 6 months. The total fleet of crude oil tankers has decreased by around 0.4% during the first 6 months of the year, mainly thanks to the extensive ship recycling activity undertaken and the relatively “soft” newbuilding delivery schedule that was at hand. With this trend likely set to continue on for at least the near-term, especially in the case of newbuilding deliveries where things have eased off further, the freight market should find a relative balance even under the pessimistic scenario that we see a minimal growth rate emerge in terms of trade.
Given that there are still a fair number of indicators pointing to an improvement in trade volumes for the near term, there should in theory be reasonable room for a fair spike in freight rates to take place in the final quarter of the year. Granted that the recent trade disputes that have arisen between the US and China have dampened hopes by a certain degree, but the overall trend is still there and given that OPEC and Russia are still looking to be committed to their goal of increasing their production levels, this should help generate an ever-increasing flow of crude to the East.
At the same time, it is important to take note that there still seems to be a wave of new refinery capacity set to come online in China (Asia’s largest consumer) while it is important to note that the countries oil refinery throughput had risen by 8.2% y-o-y in May.
- George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, Allied Shipping -
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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