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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing days lay ahead.
In the year to date earnings have followed much in line with the troubled levels that were being noted a year prior. The main difference was that this year we were starting to get “good vibes” as to the prospects of both trade and fleet development moving forward George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations in Allied shipping says in his latest weekly report.
In terms of trade, the steps that were slowly being taken by OPEC and Russia, namely to ramp up their production levels, were already starting to pay dividends on some routes. At the same time the Fracking revolution in the US has already helped shift trade patterns in such a way that each extra tonne of crude oil being shipped on average adds for considerably increase in tone-mile against what it would be adding a couple of years back. He further noted that, given that most of the foreseeable consumption growth is seemingly being generated from Far Eastern economies, the significance of this latter point gains further traction and weighting when looking at expectations of how trade will evolve moving forward. Just to put a few figures to mind, the Asian Pacific and African regions have shown a 31.1% and 32.1% increase in crude oil consumption over the past decade according to the latest figures provided by BP’s statistical review, while in comparison Europe and North America have shown a decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% during the same time frame.
According to George Lazaridis , in the case of the Asian Pacific region this growth rate is ever more significant given that the region now holds a 35.6% share of global crude oil consumption (Africa on the other hand still takes up a mere 4.2%) marking it close to on par with the combined share of 39.8% taken up by Europe and North America. The trend therefore seems to be ever more Eastbound for trade flow in this sector, while given that the US is now being poised as becoming a strong export player, the recent trend noted in terms of tonne-mile increases, is likely to further bolster over the coming years.
On the other side of the equation, we had been witnessing a relative improvement in the overall crude oil tanker fleet development over the past 6 months. The total fleet of crude oil tankers has decreased by around 0.4% during the first 6 months of the year, mainly thanks to the extensive ship recycling activity undertaken and the relatively “soft” newbuilding delivery schedule that was at hand. With this trend likely set to continue on for at least the near-term, especially in the case of newbuilding deliveries where things have eased off further, the freight market should find a relative balance even under the pessimistic scenario that we see a minimal growth rate emerge in terms of trade.
Given that there are still a fair number of indicators pointing to an improvement in trade volumes for the near term, there should in theory be reasonable room for a fair spike in freight rates to take place in the final quarter of the year. Granted that the recent trade disputes that have arisen between the US and China have dampened hopes by a certain degree, but the overall trend is still there and given that OPEC and Russia are still looking to be committed to their goal of increasing their production levels, this should help generate an ever-increasing flow of crude to the East.
At the same time, it is important to take note that there still seems to be a wave of new refinery capacity set to come online in China (Asia’s largest consumer) while it is important to note that the countries oil refinery throughput had risen by 8.2% y-o-y in May.
- George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, Allied Shipping -
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Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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