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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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