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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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