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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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