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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Moores Stephens

Shipping Confidence Survey

In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 to a four-year high at 6.4 out of 10.0. Confidence on the part of owners was also at a four-year high, up from 6.4 to 6.6, while managers’ confidence was up too, from 6.1 to 6.4. The rating for charterers, however, continued its recent erratic performance – down to 5.0 from 7.7 in November 2017, but up on the 4.7 recorded in August 2017.

 

Moores March Shipping confidence

 

Confidence on the part of brokers, meanwhile, was down from 6.3 to 6.1. Confidence was up in Europe from 6.3 to 6.6, equalling the highest ever rating for this category of respondent in the life of the survey, which was launched in May 2008 with an average confidence rating across all respondents in all geographical areas of 6.8. Confidence was also up in Asia, from 5.7 to 6.3, and in North America, from 5.8 to 5.9.

“The shipping market is still characterised by high volatility and excess tonnage in most sectors, particularly bulk carriers and tankers, but there is cause for slight optimism.”

Survey analysis
The likelihood of respondents making a major investment, or significant development, over the next 12 months was up on the previous survey from 5.3
to 5.5 out of a maximum possible score of 10.0, its highest level since May 2014. Of note was the increased confidence of charterers (up from 6.2 to 6.8) and of managers (up from 5.3 to 5.6). Geographically, increased expectations of major investment were highest in Asia (up from 5.0 to 5.8).

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was up from 59% last time to 64%, the highest figure since May 2008 (66%)

“Starting next year, the industry looks set to benefit from capacity reductions at shipyards, but the cost of funding will rise for most market participants.”

Freight markets
The number of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market was down by five percentage points on the previous survey to 39%, whilst those expecting lower rates were unchanged at 13%. Meanwhile, there was a four percentage-point increase, to 54%, in the numbers anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk sector, accompanied by a four percentage-point fall to 8% in the numbers anticipating lower rates. In the container ship sector, there was a two percentage-point increase to 38% in the numbers expecting higher rates, and a three percentage-point fall, to 12%, in those anticipating lower rates.

“The supply and demand equation will balance out in line with industry growth rate over the coming years.”

Crude oil prices
When asked to predict where per-barrel crude oil prices would be in 12 months’ time, 36% of respondents opted for the $60-$69 range, as opposed to 29% when the same question was posed in February 2017. The 19% of respondents  who opted for the $50-$59 range was just half the 38% who did so last year, while 28% of respondents favoured the $70-$79 price range, as opposed to just 10% 12 months ago.

“In order to survive in a shipping industry characterised by low freight rates, we must try to reduce ship management expenses.”

 

Conclusion
The volatile nature of the shipping industry dictates that optimism should be tempered with caution. But a four-year high in confidence must be welcomed as extremely good news. Shipping is more confident of making a major new investment over the next 12 months than at any time in almost four years, even though finance will probably be costlier to access in the year ahead. Net freight rate sentiment is positive in all main tonnage categories, and, whilst down in tankers, it increased both in the dry bulk and container ship trades. Familiar problems persist. Excess tonnage in many trades and insufficient demolition levels continue to perpetuate uncertainty, and freight rates are not yet at the levels required to turn promise into reality. 


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