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Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
IntermodalPresident’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlier this month President Donald Trump went ahead with the imposition of 25 percent tariffs on steel imports and 10 percent for aluminum but exempted after all, Canada and Mexico specifically. Details of the plan came from a briefing by administration officials ahead of Trump's speech. Other countries can apply for exemptions, according to the administration, although details of when they would be granted were not available. So at this time most believe it is still at a preliminary stage and perhaps just another move of the US on the world trade playing field.

President Trump has offered relief from steel and aluminum tariffs to countries that treat the US fairly on trade, a strategic move that is probably aimed at applying further pressure on Canada and Mexico regarding the potential new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Of course separate talks are still ongoing between the States, Canada and Mexico on the NAFTA and there is still a lot of work on the table for the parties. Several major trading partners such as the European Union have said they will respond to the US tariffs with direct action. European Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said if this goes ahead EU can easily respond with an “arsenal” of countermeasures that would include European tariffs on U.S. oranges, tobacco and bourbon for example. As Europe accounts for nearly 5 million tonnes of the 35 million tonnes of steel the U.S. imports every year, the bloc is hopeful that its members would be exempt ultimately from the tariffs, one way or another. If not, officials have said that they would consider asking the World Trade Organization to impose its own measures.

China, together with Japan, South Korea and India, accounted for 6.6 million tonnes of steel imports to the U.S.in 2017. Beijing, which until now had kept largely silent on the issue, sharpened its rhetoric significantly. Another important lever that China has, is U.S. agricultural exports and it has said in the past that it could target soybeans if needed to take action. "Especially given today's globalization, choosing a trade war is a mistaken prescription. The outcome will only be harmful," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on the sidelines of an annual meeting of China's parliament. "China would have to make a justified and necessary response." China had a record $375.2 billion goods surplus with the United States last year. Because the US tariffs are being levied under a provision of US trade law that applies to national security, rather than dumping or import surges, it will be possible to exempt imports from military allies in NATO, as well as Japan and South Korea, focusing the tariffs on China and avoiding the risk of a broader trade war. The administration has not yet said that it will focus the tariffs in this way; but, given that they are being introduced with a phase-in period, during which trade partners may seek exemptions, such targeting seems to be the likeliest scenario.
By Christopher T. Whitty
Commercial Manager - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping


Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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