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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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