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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
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Showing 1796 to 1800 news of total 6871 |
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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