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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 14 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
Interest in second hand tonnage remains firm with buyers in the dry bulk sector looking to benefit from rising freight rates that are eventually ex ...
Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
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Showing 1776 to 1780 news of total 6871 |
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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