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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 o ...
Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
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