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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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