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Wednesday, 15 November 17
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 For another week, oil seems to be the most volatile and interesting commodity to watch. In this segment we’ll look at some of the major factors affecting the commodity price as a whole.
Brent price closed yesterday at $62.90 down from 64.65 last week, which was the highest level reached since June 2015.
Efforts by OPEC and Russia to cut output by the on-going policy, which is already expected to extend throughout the first quarter of next year as well, have curbed excess supply in an effort to prop up the commodity price and seek and end to the global supply glut which has sent prices plummeting over the past two years.
OPEC has also continually revised its global demand outlook upward since July, noting an expected increase to 33.42m barrels next year. OPEC and other producers will meet again on the 30th of November in Vienna and are expected to agree to a further extension of production possibly for another 9 months up until the end of 2018.
The recent wave of arrests in Saudi Arabia has been touted as a corruption purge. However, seeing as this is also an empowering move for Mohammed bin Salman who has been an outspoken supporter of OPEC’s production cuts past 2018, it further increases the chance of these cuts being extended further.
However, these efforts are being undermined by a 12-month continual increase in US shale oil which has been triggered by the increased price. US Shale production is set to further increase in December by approx. 80,000 barrels, with the US rig number increasing quickly during the past months. Reports have been actually confirming another nine rigs added during the past days, which brings up the total number up to 738 rigs, an increase in excess of 60% compared to twelve months back.
While global stocks are falling for the first time since 2013, we won’t be surprised to see the increase in US and other supplies halting this decline within next year and together also halt the upward path the price of the commodity has followed in the past months.
One of the wild cards to keep an eye on is Venezuela which has been facing various issues in repaying its massive debts. Following a $1.1bn payment on state-oil company PDVSA’s issued bond last week, President Nicolas Maduro announced that this would be the final time it paid its creditors fully and that his intent is to seek a restructuring regarding future debt payments, which is putting Venezuela’s ability to pay its debts altogether into question.
Formally defaulting, could quite conceivably put further stress on the country’s oil output and therefore on the commodity price. Venezuela’s oil production has already been under considerable pressure in the past year, with October marking its lowest production in 28 years, at 1,863m barrels per day.
The aforementioned issues place oil prices in a tenuous, unstable situation. With caution regarding the rising US production, which could possibly result in a price correction, expectations for next year should perhaps be less bullish than what they currently are.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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