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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
REFINED COAL HAS MADE UP NEARLY ONE-FIFTH OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION SO FAR IN 2017 - EIA
The U.S. power sector consumption of coal is increasingly shifting to refined coal, even as coal-fired electricity generation decreases. Use of ref ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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