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Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
 Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased. Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.
World Economy
The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d to account for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen reaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised down by 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demand following the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvement y-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barrel demand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, but remained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.
Tanker Market
Sentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classes showed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16% compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port and weather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains in surplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced a relative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of around 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d, around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/d higher than in 2017.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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