We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 07 November 17
DRY BULK SHIPPING: TAKE GOOD CARE OF THE RECOVERY SAYS PETER SAND
 Demand:
Even without much support from Brazilian iron ore exports during August, capesize rates went from $10,000 to $17,000 per day. In September, those gains were retained until Chinese Golden Week in early October reduced trip chartering interest, dampened demand and lowered the freight rates. Not dramatically, but noticeably, says Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
Capesize ships have (as of 26 October) been in profitable territory (above $15,300 per day) since 11 August and panamaxes likewise, since 5 September (above $10,200 per day).
Handymax/supramax/ultramax owners and operators who fixed their ships after 21 August, have also seen freight rates covering, not just operational expenditures (OPEX) but also capital expenditures (CAPEX), leaving a slim return on investment. This has only happened three times- for more than two days in a row – in the past two years. Finally, the handy size segment has, for the first time since April 2014, reached a freight rate level above $9,000 per day.
According to Peter Sand, this ongoing recovery is still in a “fragile” state – demand has increased but so has supply. This means only a slight fundamental market improvement. The return to permanent profitable freight rates is still way off. The transport demand for dry bulk cargoes in Q1-2018 is considerably lower than the volumes transported in Q4-2017, and that’s the first hurdle to cross. Maintaining slow steaming is another prerequisite to hold onto the gains that have been achieved.
At the centre of dry bulk demand, as always, is China; growing its seaborne imports of coal during the first nine months of 2017 by 18.7%, and its seaborne imports of iron ore during the first eight months, by 6.9% year-on-year. In total, this is a demand growth of 79m tonnes (27 + 52 respectively) for the two commodities year-to-date. Setting a new world record in steel production for the month of August of 74.6m tonnes, resulted in total growth of 5.6% for eight months’ production in 2017, compared with the same period last year.
Another record was reached in September, when Chinese iron ore imports exceeded 100m tonnes for the first time.
While this is much needed by the dry bulk shipping industry to get out of the doldrums of recent years, there may be a limit as to how far this can go. Imagine if steel production stalls, then iron ore imports are likely only to grow at the expense of domestically mined ore.
BIMCO calculates that substitution of low-quality, domestically mined iron ore in China, for imported high-quality iron ore from Brazil or Australia, would have increased imports by 17m tonnes per month in the first eight months of 2017.
Regardless of recent reports, about one in three Chinese iron ore mines being at risk of losing their mining licenses due to environmental issues, the output from Chinese iron ore mines is still up by 5% in the first eight months, year-on-year. One of the key risk elements in the equation is actual steel consumption in China.
In addition to the strong growth that we have seen into China, US coal exports have certainly added to the panamax and capesize demand in the Atlantic since Q4 2016.
Peter Sand further noted in his report, from November 2016 to July 2017, we have seen a monthly average of 6.4m tonnes of coal being exported from the US to a vast number of destinations like Japan, Egypt, Turkey, South Korea, China, Guatemala, India, Spain and Morocco. This is up by 61% versus the same nine months of the year before. Key export ports, mostly on the Atlantic side, are Hampton Roads and Baltimore, where panamax and capesize ships are used to export 60% of the total volume. In the US Gulf, Mobile dominates exports with shipments of coal in panamax. On the Pacific side, US coal exports are handled via Vancouver.
The total tonne miles adjusted demand growth rate in 2017, is forecast to be 3.9%, the highest in three years.
Supply:
Commenting on supply side, Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO said, the delivery pace has reduced significantly since H1-2017, but so has demolition activity. During H1-2017, 28m DWT was delivered, while 8.5m DWT was demolished. Whereas Q3-2017 has seen only 6m DWT delivered, and 3.6m DWT permanently leaving the active fleet.
Demolition of handymax tonnage, has been dominant this year – a natural reaction from owners operating in that segment, which has seen fleet growth around 5% pa for some time now, clearly outpacing all the other dry bulk segments.
Contracting activity for the year so far, has as expected, gone up from the extraordinarily low levels that we experienced in 2016. While Q1 2017 was still quiet in terms of actual orders, newbuild interest was growing in the background. The larger segments are popular. Panamax and very large ore carriers (VLOC) account for 15 out of the 17m DWT ordered in total, year- to- date (until 2 October). It’s worth noting that many of the VLOCs have been ordered against a long-term charter, most likely replacing existing long-term chartered VLOCs when they are retired. Later in October, another 5 VLOCs were ordered.
For the first nine months of the year, the dry bulk fleet has grown by 2.7%, already a three-year high. BIMCO expects the fleet will end up growing by 3.1% to 16m DWT as demolition expectations are lower than the previously anticipated 19m DWT.
In the future, expected fleet growth remains quite low based on the ships on order now – and does not include orders not yet placed. 2018 could see the fleet grow by less than 1%.
Outlook:
Should we look no further than China when it comes to dry bulk market demand?
No, is the short answer – at least not in relation to steel production ingredients – iron ore and coking coal. In 2008, global iron ore imports were at 841m tonnes, out of which China took 436m tonnes (52%). In 2017, the global seaborne market is at 1,478m tonnes, out of which China takes 1,075m tonnes (73%).
For thermal coal, a few other nations are worth taking note of, in addition to China. Those are India, South Korea and Malaysia. Additionally, the US seems to have re-established itself as an option in the seaborne coking coal market, providing long distance voyages into Asia. Ever since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the dry bulk market has only had one growth area: Asia. All other regions of the world contribute with steady or declining imports.
Note that European imports of:
- Iron ore are down from 140m tonnes in 2008 to 117m tonnes in 2017
- Coking coal are down from 59m tonnes in 2008 to 46m tonnes in 2017
- Thermal coal are down from 156m tonnes in 2008 to 128m tonnes in 2017.
For the current time and Q4 2017, selected seaborne trades from major exporters including iron ore, coal, grains, soya and steel products are expected to grow by 3.4% from Q3 2017 (source: SSY). Whereas, grain peaks in Q1 and Q3, and soya in Q2, the seaborne trading of steel products, coking coal, thermal coal and iron ore will all peak in Q4.
After a bit of a downturn in the market during the first half of October (which was expected), demand lifted freight rates again. It’s time to make the most of it, before seasonal low demand in Q1-2018 get the upper hand and push freight rates down Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO concluded.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 10 November 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF 2017 IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 656 MMST; UP10% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 08 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE MIXED; COKING COAL EKING OUT SOME GAINS; THERMAL COAL STRUGGLING - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were mixed, with coking coal eking out some gains, while thermal coal struggled amid the falling oil prices, ANZ Strategist said in a ...
Wednesday, 08 November 17
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
If you are a dry bulk owner today you are definitely feeling the pressure of the past couple of years off and given the admittedly unexpected growt ...
Wednesday, 08 November 17
NEW QUAY OPENED AT THE INDUSTRIAL PORT IN BREMEN,GERMAN
Press Release: After a building period lasting three-and-a-half years, the port logistics firm Weserport, the “bremenports” comp ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
ING JOINS FORCES ON BLOCKCHAIN-BASED PLATFORM FOR ENERGY COMMODITIES SECTOR
Blockchain technology. It’s often been described as the most important invention in computing in a generation.
So it should come as no s ...
|
|
|
Showing 1886 to 1890 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
