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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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