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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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