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Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as of the end of Q3. This represents more than half of China's total coal-derived electricity generation, and according to the government this accomplishment is over two years ahead of schedule.
As Commodore Research has continued to discuss in China and coal-related coverage, the Chinese government is set to continue focusing on improving pollution -- but at the same time, there will still be a healthy demand for coal. While coal-derived electricity generation this November and December might not increase this year by 14% from October 2017's generation, a large increase is nevertheless likely to be seen again this year.
As discussed most recently in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, Chinese coal-derived electricity generation is seasonal and always falls in October before finding great strength in November and December. So far this decade, China's coal-derived electricity generation in October has come in at a rate 8% lower than seen during the preceding three months. November and December, on average, have then historically seen a 14% increase from October's generation. Going forward, stronger demand for thermal coal (compared to October) is again set to occur, and this is coinciding with power plant stockpiles still standing at lower than normal levels for this time of year. Also helpful for coal import prospects is that Daqin Railway maintenance has commenced later than usual this year, which is putting a small amount of pressure on the transportation of domestic coal.
While specific information on the effects of the power plant ultra-low emissions reform program have not been released, the reform in itself is encouraging and points to coal likely being set to continue to drive electricity generation. Ensuring that electricity generation meets peak winter residential demand remains the single most important issue to China's government where electricity is concerned, and coal will never be shunned at the expense of heating the nation's masses. Along the same lines, new construction methods involving less pollution are being carried out in China as well. As discussed in Commodore Research's November 6th Weekly China Report, last week saw officials in China announce that a new construction method involving less pollution is being trialed in Shanghai. According to officials, an "inverse building method" is being used in the construction of an expansion to the Shanghai General Hospital. As part of this new method, construction both under and above ground are being conducted simultaneously to lower pollution.
Air pollution remains a large concern in China, but the government must also continue to make sure that construction, job creation, and economic growth maintain strength in the next several years. The Chinese government continues to have conflicting goals and cannot afford economic growth and development to slow substantially even as it continues to fight pollution. It also, of course, cannot afford for any electricity shortages to occur this winter. Improving air pollution will remain a key focus going forward, but Commodore Research does not anticipate that any sustained slowdown in the economy (and commodity import demand) will be seen during the next few years. For this winter, coal is also likely to remain in demand.
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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