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Tuesday, 17 October 17
U.S RECORD EXPORTS OIL TO EAST HAS HELPED THE TANKER TRADE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
AlliedThere was a flood of fresh news this week which clouded the overall prospects of the crude oil market. Just one week prior Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two countries which together produce roughly one fifth of global oil supplies, made a joint announcement reaffirming their commitment to cut back production and help alleviate markets from the glut in supply faced right now said George Lazaridis in his latest report.

According to George Lazaridis, on the back of these positive news the price of crude oil started to show signs of life, with an increase of more than US$ 1 per barrel being seen just hours after the news came out. Moving on to last Monday and there was already a considerable amount of market activity, while most kept a keen eye out for what key findings would be given from OPECs monthly report as well as the US Energy and Information Administration’s weekly inventory report.

Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied Shipping further noted, OPEC’s in-house analysis in its monthly oil market report did not disappoint, quoting a considerable increase in its forecast for demand next year. It noted a more than 0.6% increase compared to its previous month’s forecast levels, basin this largely on much stronger demand levels now being expected from OECD countries and the lower estimates of non-OPEC supply. The market reaction was almost imminent with the price of Brent crude reaching just under US$ 57 per barrel. This gain seemed to have been further boosted on early Friday as the EIA’s weekly inventories figures showed a decrease by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week while it also reaffirmed the sense of weakening shale oil production figures moving forward. The rally continued on for most of Friday and looks to still have steam in early hours of trading today.

He further added, in the midst of this we continue to see a big volume of U.S. crude heading to the East, with the increased price gap between WTI and Brent pushing for an increase in Far East appetite for U.S. oil, and the U.S. having already noted a record exports of 1.98 million barrels per day by late September. This opening of this trade has helped the tanker trade, adding a fair amount of miles per tonne of crude oil imports made by major importers such as China.

All this has helped boost the image of the crude oil tanker, with freight rates having already seen a fair rise over the past couple of weeks and things looking to gain in strength over the coming months as the winter season demand spike starts to show face. This in combination with the slower fleet growth being seen of late and we have started to see some improvement in prospects moving forward for these large crude oil carriers. In combination with the increased refining capacity being established in the Far East, and we may well see an increase in trade that could well push for a further overall improvement in the market.

It seems as though the prospects for 2018 have improved and there is more and more confidence that the difficulties faced during the second half of 2016 as well as in the year so far may well be behind us. That is not to say that anyone is holding out expectations for any extraordinary rally to take place, but rather that a better market balance could be reached than the one faced right now. This balance may just turn out to be exactly what the crude oil tanker markets needs right now he concluded.


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