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Wednesday, 28 June 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 From the beginning of the year until now SnP activity has changed significantly. To put things into perspective, after a fast and furious q1 on the dry bulk side, which counted 219 bulk carriers transactions, a rather sluggish q2 followed with 130 transactions, translating to a 41% decrease. Currently, as we are approaching the end of June, we can say that buyers and investors have switched more into a reflection mode, contemplating whether and when they should buy or sell again. Some are looking to flip ships they bought cheaper and others wait for second-hand prices to keep pointing downwards and move to more attractive levels.
In the meantime, the one factor that appears rather consistent between the first and the second quarter of the year is the hire market. Indeed, with the exception of Capesize rates that are today 58% down compared to year highs, averages earnings for all other sizes are more or less faring around 2017 average levels. Capesize market aside, there is comfort in this consistency as it also evidences stability and of course stronger resistance formed by owners. Saying that I believe that this consistency was somewhat already priced in Buyers’ expectations during the past months and it can’t provide additional steam to asset prices at this stage.
The fact that ships are not operating anymore at sub-OPEX levels as they did during the better part of 2016, is indeed encouraging for a lot of owners who contemplate buying, but the decisive factor is purely the overall picture that the fleet has. Regulations, not excessive order books and lack of financing, are all factors highly anticipated to start having an impact on the supply and demand equilibrium between cargoes and vessels.
Currently, there is still overall decent movement on the SnP side. Buyers are inspecting and offering but there is a lot of restrain as far the levels at which respective vessels should be attained and how aggressively this marketed tonnage should be pursued at and in a way it makes sense that this sort of discipline is demonstrated.
Second-hand prices only rose earlier this year because perspective buyers were willing to offer and compete on tonnage. Now there is no such desire, at least not to the extent that there was before. Until the hire market moves up to levels that have not been reached during the past 6 years, Buyers will continue being the ones that dictate prices and with the exception of mid-spring, this trend has been very clear during the year so far.
Sellers have made a few attempts to push prices higher especially on larger vessels. It started on the Kamsarmax / Panamax size where the price of a 5-year-old flirted with levels of the respective newbuilding. The moment a non-eco Kamsarmax deal was close to the prices of a 2018 slot, buyers started to hold back with military discipline. During the same period, Capesize asset prices on reported deals, although still far from newbuilding price levels, also inspired Sellers to ask for more but Buyers held back in this instance as well.
We can list concluded deals and recent sales as well as failed sales and ships that are not sold for months, but the bottom line stays the same. This is and will remain for the better part of the remaining years of this decade purely a Buyers’ market, at least on the Dry Bulk side. This is not necessarily bad of course. After all, in a market that the hires are not super healthy, it’s good to know that there is still some control in the hands of the owners.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 March 17
PANAMAX : ACTIVITY IN THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week we were looking at prolonged activity from ECSA, mostly with grain cargoes to Far East and SE Asia, where Ultras to SE Asia fi ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
THE ROLE OF COAL IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE EU-28: HANS-WILHELM SCHIFFER
The European Union (EU-28) is one of the largest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of €14,635 billion in 2015. It ha ...
Wednesday, 29 March 17
MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
Shipowners will always look for market signals in order to gauge market perception and decide upon which strategy to follow next. And while owners ...
Monday, 27 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO FIRM WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 24 March 17
ADARO INDONESIA'S COAL SALES VOLUME INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 54.1 MILLION TONES IN 2016
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Indonesia, Indonesia’s second largest coal miner’s sales volume increased slightly to 54.1 million tones (Mt) i ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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