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Wednesday, 28 June 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 From the beginning of the year until now SnP activity has changed significantly. To put things into perspective, after a fast and furious q1 on the dry bulk side, which counted 219 bulk carriers transactions, a rather sluggish q2 followed with 130 transactions, translating to a 41% decrease. Currently, as we are approaching the end of June, we can say that buyers and investors have switched more into a reflection mode, contemplating whether and when they should buy or sell again. Some are looking to flip ships they bought cheaper and others wait for second-hand prices to keep pointing downwards and move to more attractive levels.
In the meantime, the one factor that appears rather consistent between the first and the second quarter of the year is the hire market. Indeed, with the exception of Capesize rates that are today 58% down compared to year highs, averages earnings for all other sizes are more or less faring around 2017 average levels. Capesize market aside, there is comfort in this consistency as it also evidences stability and of course stronger resistance formed by owners. Saying that I believe that this consistency was somewhat already priced in Buyers’ expectations during the past months and it can’t provide additional steam to asset prices at this stage.
The fact that ships are not operating anymore at sub-OPEX levels as they did during the better part of 2016, is indeed encouraging for a lot of owners who contemplate buying, but the decisive factor is purely the overall picture that the fleet has. Regulations, not excessive order books and lack of financing, are all factors highly anticipated to start having an impact on the supply and demand equilibrium between cargoes and vessels.
Currently, there is still overall decent movement on the SnP side. Buyers are inspecting and offering but there is a lot of restrain as far the levels at which respective vessels should be attained and how aggressively this marketed tonnage should be pursued at and in a way it makes sense that this sort of discipline is demonstrated.
Second-hand prices only rose earlier this year because perspective buyers were willing to offer and compete on tonnage. Now there is no such desire, at least not to the extent that there was before. Until the hire market moves up to levels that have not been reached during the past 6 years, Buyers will continue being the ones that dictate prices and with the exception of mid-spring, this trend has been very clear during the year so far.
Sellers have made a few attempts to push prices higher especially on larger vessels. It started on the Kamsarmax / Panamax size where the price of a 5-year-old flirted with levels of the respective newbuilding. The moment a non-eco Kamsarmax deal was close to the prices of a 2018 slot, buyers started to hold back with military discipline. During the same period, Capesize asset prices on reported deals, although still far from newbuilding price levels, also inspired Sellers to ask for more but Buyers held back in this instance as well.
We can list concluded deals and recent sales as well as failed sales and ships that are not sold for months, but the bottom line stays the same. This is and will remain for the better part of the remaining years of this decade purely a Buyers’ market, at least on the Dry Bulk side. This is not necessarily bad of course. After all, in a market that the hires are not super healthy, it’s good to know that there is still some control in the hands of the owners.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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