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Wednesday, 28 June 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 From the beginning of the year until now SnP activity has changed significantly. To put things into perspective, after a fast and furious q1 on the dry bulk side, which counted 219 bulk carriers transactions, a rather sluggish q2 followed with 130 transactions, translating to a 41% decrease. Currently, as we are approaching the end of June, we can say that buyers and investors have switched more into a reflection mode, contemplating whether and when they should buy or sell again. Some are looking to flip ships they bought cheaper and others wait for second-hand prices to keep pointing downwards and move to more attractive levels.
In the meantime, the one factor that appears rather consistent between the first and the second quarter of the year is the hire market. Indeed, with the exception of Capesize rates that are today 58% down compared to year highs, averages earnings for all other sizes are more or less faring around 2017 average levels. Capesize market aside, there is comfort in this consistency as it also evidences stability and of course stronger resistance formed by owners. Saying that I believe that this consistency was somewhat already priced in Buyers’ expectations during the past months and it can’t provide additional steam to asset prices at this stage.
The fact that ships are not operating anymore at sub-OPEX levels as they did during the better part of 2016, is indeed encouraging for a lot of owners who contemplate buying, but the decisive factor is purely the overall picture that the fleet has. Regulations, not excessive order books and lack of financing, are all factors highly anticipated to start having an impact on the supply and demand equilibrium between cargoes and vessels.
Currently, there is still overall decent movement on the SnP side. Buyers are inspecting and offering but there is a lot of restrain as far the levels at which respective vessels should be attained and how aggressively this marketed tonnage should be pursued at and in a way it makes sense that this sort of discipline is demonstrated.
Second-hand prices only rose earlier this year because perspective buyers were willing to offer and compete on tonnage. Now there is no such desire, at least not to the extent that there was before. Until the hire market moves up to levels that have not been reached during the past 6 years, Buyers will continue being the ones that dictate prices and with the exception of mid-spring, this trend has been very clear during the year so far.
Sellers have made a few attempts to push prices higher especially on larger vessels. It started on the Kamsarmax / Panamax size where the price of a 5-year-old flirted with levels of the respective newbuilding. The moment a non-eco Kamsarmax deal was close to the prices of a 2018 slot, buyers started to hold back with military discipline. During the same period, Capesize asset prices on reported deals, although still far from newbuilding price levels, also inspired Sellers to ask for more but Buyers held back in this instance as well.
We can list concluded deals and recent sales as well as failed sales and ships that are not sold for months, but the bottom line stays the same. This is and will remain for the better part of the remaining years of this decade purely a Buyers’ market, at least on the Dry Bulk side. This is not necessarily bad of course. After all, in a market that the hires are not super healthy, it’s good to know that there is still some control in the hands of the owners.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 June 17
WORLD ECONOMY SHOWS A MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND
During the past weeks, we have seen many organizations and think tanks show a more optimistic face with regards to the world economy. The World Ban ...
Monday, 19 June 17
PANAMAX RATES HELP BALTIC INDEX TO A POSITIVE MOVE
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose very marginally this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Panamax indexes show a positive tren ...
Friday, 16 June 17
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION RISES; UP 24.1% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 15 June 17
SUPRAMAX NICKEL ORE FROM PHILIPPINES TO S. CHINA PAYING AROUND MID $10000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market looked more promising from both sides of the basins. Within Atlantic USG returned with tick better rates seen as tonnage kept tig ...
Wednesday, 14 June 17
WORLD COAL PRODUCTION FELL BY 6.2%, THE LARGEST ANNUAL DECLINE ON RECORD - BP
COALspot.com: The 2017 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, shows global energy markets continuing to undergo long-term changes as ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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