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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in May 2015. But over the past few weeks, the scene has completely changed. There is an apparent lack of demolition candidates, while demo prices in the Indian subcontinent have lost over $30/ldt on average during the same period. Bangladesh and Pakistan were competing quite strongly offering a small premium over India’s Alang prices. However, the recent heavy decline in local steel plate prices has forced most end buyers to reduce their offering price.
In view of the restocking ahead of the monsoon season in late May –June and the annual budgets in Pakistan and Bangladesh during the same period, we remain to see if rumors of any new duties/taxes will come into effect for the respective domestic ship-recycling sectors, and how such developments will affect scrap buyers appetite.
We have to keep in mind that at the moment only Bangladesh and India can cut gas free and clean for hot works tanker vessels, as after the fatal accidents that took place in Pakistan earlier this year, there is still a total ban on the demolition of all wet units in the country.
Scrap prices are mainly dictated by steel demand and steel prices and these are subsequently affected by iron ore commodity prices. Iron ore prices had climbed from below $60/ton in Oct 2016 to approximately $96/ton in February this year. Since then, the price of the commodity has constantly dropped to settle at low $60/ton levels and at the end of last week when a full-scale retreat took place, with futures in China, Dalian Iron Ore witnessing a limit down on investor concern in regards to demand outlook.
It seems that the deleveraging of China's $4 trillion shadow banking system just accelerated massively as Bank Wealth Product Issuance crashed 15% month-over-month. With stocks and bonds already plunging, commodities joined the decline that came after tightened regulation on macro-prudential assessment and interbank business. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, there is still room for iron ore to decline further amid oversupply with imports and port stockpiles remaining at high levels that further support oversupply.
Over the past months, Capes and Panamaxes freight rates increased significantly by demand for more shipments, together with record steel production in China, and that has helped boost stockpiles at local ports. After peaking at a record 132.5 million tons in March, stockpiles have held near that level, according to Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce Co.
Since the end of March though the BCI has lost more than 1,100 points and the average earnings quoted by the Baltic Exchange have dropped from $20,650/day to $12,446/day today. Is it time to panic? The reality is that we are still way above the $1,985/day the big bulkers were earning in March 2016, but signs are indicating a slowdown in demand that inevitably always leads to pressure on earnings. As we are all waiting to see how long will this pressure last, all hopes for sustained positive sentiment in the dry bulk market have now been placed on the grains trade that could potentially make up for some of the lost momentum due to the slowdown Capesizes are currently witnessing.
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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