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Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
PanamaxWe have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that the high point of 1,338 in the Baltic Dry Index is the ceiling we can reach for the time being said Allied Shipping Research in its latest weekly market report.

According to George Lazaridis of Allied, this in part has been reflected by the slower growth figures reported today by China’s official import figures, which showed a rise of 11.9 percent compared to March’s 20.3 percent increase. In terms of exports, things seemed to be hit even harder, with exports noting an 8.0 percent rise year-on-year, compared to 16.4 percent rise that was noted in the month prior.

Dry bulk trade is still heavily reliant on China, with its imports accounting for the largest share of seaborne trade for the main dry bulk commodities. At the same time, China’s imports are directly correlated and reliant on its exports, with its economy still being export oriented to a large extent. The recent trends that have been noted in the dry bulk market have been too many people’s surprise, given that most had expected that the seasonal grain trade in the Atlantic would have helped keep the momentum that was being noted in previous months going. However it seems as though we witnessed a materialization of the main fears that had been observed in regards to the problems being faced in the steel industry and excesses being seen in terms of stock piles of iron ore, while at the same "me the drop in commodity prices that has been taking place over the past months, has only helped to allow charterers to withhold cargoes and dampen market conditions for the time being.

Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied further noted, that being said, there are still expectations of trade growth to continue to hold up relatively well given the brighter outlook that is being seen for the global economy this year, however there are still “headwinds” to overcome, with China itself taking on further policy tightening in order to cut off speculative investment (mainly in the property sector), something that could inevitably remain as a dampener over the coming months. We are still not yet in an economic environment globally whereby we can witness a fast-paced growth in trade. We have seen conditions in the political landscape improve somewhat, especially over the past weekend with France’s election results helping eliminate fears of a potential impending break-up of Europe. This should, in turn, helped boost figures in one of the world’s biggest economies, while improved numbers coming from the U.S. could combine to provide another strong driver for emerging markets.   
 
George Lazaridis of Allied Shipping Research further said, although there are still rumors that we may well see another small rally before midsummer, as there are still talks of excess grain cargoes looming hidden in the market, we may well end up seeing a further softening in sight with the 1,338 points noted on the 29th of March, being the maximum high that will be seen in the first half of 2017. Nevertheless, we are still seeing a market that is firmly on a recovery path and although for the moment this recovery path is slow and still relatively fragile, it is still on course and as such should translate into further improvements in the freight market moving forward. To what extent, will both depend on the overall conditions of the global economy, but as always will also heavily depend on what we do on the supply side of things. 


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