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Thursday, 20 April 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL ON ITS UPWARD MOMENTUM - ALLIED SHIPPING
AlliedHaving gone through the first quarter of the year and with the Easter break having no come and gone, it seems as though the dry bulk market is still on its upward momentum said Allied shipping in its latest weekly update.

After having outperformed the respective markets of 2016 and 2015 in the first months of the year, many had already started to feel that the market was set for a remarkable recovery course.

According to Allied’s George Lazaridis, with the iron ore and coal trades managing to show further strength and with the supply of tonnage holding relatively steady thanks to a much more manageable newbuilding delivery schedule, it wasn’t long before we started to see this sentiment materialise within the market. At its most recent peak on the 29th of March, the Baltic Dry Index surpassed the respective levels we were seeing back in 2014 and since that point has managed fairly well to continue to outperform what we have seen in recent years.

He further noted that, what’s more is that this outstanding performance has been upheld with minimal influence as of yet from the seasonal peak in grain cargoes, something that in turn points to the market still having fundamentals on the demand side that can provide the support to keep the freight rates at comparatively higher levels than what we have seen in recent years.

At the same time, however, we are seeing some signs that may well be pointing to this recent rally probably being as good as it can get right now rather than a pointer to the trends we can expect to see over the rest of the year. Iron ore prices have now tumbled to a near six-month low, hit hard by the decline in Chinese steel prices as concerns over an excessive supply glut re-emerge. At the same time, coal seems to be under similar pressure, being also influenced in part by the demand for metallurgical coal by steelmakers as well as by the still prevailing commitment by China to cut its reliance on coal for electricity generation.

George Lazaridis Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied shipping further noted that, the paradox here is that this drop in price of both of these commodities has taken a time when steel production in China has been hitting new highs and equal highs have been noted in import volumes that are shipped into upkeep feedstock for the mills. It seems as though most of the price shocks being witnessed on the commodities seem to be fuelled by concerns from traders over a potential excess in supply. This is not to say that this isn’t an indicator of what we expect to see over the coming months in terms of demand, especially given the fact that expectations are of further cuts to capacity, but rather that we have yet to see how domestic mines will react and how this will influence the trend being noted in imports.


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