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Tuesday, 04 April 17
THE IRON ORE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ITS GROWTH PATH FAIRLY WELL; THERE IS STILL ONE PART OF THE WORLD THAT IS STILL HEAVILY COMMITTED TO COAL
Coal ExcavatorWith the close of March having let us with a very positive after taste and having witnessed near the end of the month the Baltic Dry Index at its highest point in over 28 months optimism continues to hold high says Allied’s weekly market report. Nevertheless, increasingly we are starting to see signs that the high paced recovery that was noted in the market since mid February is not going to continue indefinitely with such momentum.

Allied shipping further noted that, that’s not to say that we aren’t still on a market recovery course and that expectations are still holding for the market to outperform the average earnings that were noted in the dry bulk sector back in 2016 and 2015. However, given the market fundamentals, it seems as though it is hard for the market to be able to reach new excessive highs without some major unforeseen change in the market.

According to Allied, the Iron ore has been able to keep its growth path on course fairly well, feeding of the extra demand that is being generated for steel in most developing countries and boosted at the same time by the improved performance that the global economy is managing at the moment. It is no surprise that from the unabated climb in China’s iron ore imports in March, Capesize vessels were able to reach freight rate earnings that had not been seen for over two years. Yet conditions in the second most important commodity for dry bulkers have not been so rosy

Commenting on coal, Allied's Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations George Lazaridis said, the coal has been facing significant difficulties since 2015 and although up to this point we have been able to see some support from countries such as India, while at the same time Chinese appetite for its internal consumption seems to be more and more sourced by imports rather than local mines, covering as such the previous gap that was created by China’s vast drop in thermal coal consumption. Despite the recent media focus that is being placed on coal lately due to the U.S. President’s extensive efforts to revamp its appeal and put U.S. production back on line by scrapping the Climate change treaties signed by his predecessor, It seems as though there is little that can be done to really jolt the coal market back into high growth. Increasingly so its benefits as an energy source are surpassed by other energy alternatives and ever more so in terms of cost and efficiency rather than just due to strong protests by environmentalists.

Allied noted further, however there is still one part of the world that is still heavily committed to coal and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. 61% of India’s power generation capacity is provided by coal while about 40% of India’s coal fired plant capacity is currently idle, easily allowing for a sharp increase in coal consumption.

Going back to the overall picture of the market there is point to see that global growth is still more reliant on the emerging market and in particular that of China (which has recently drop its growth targets for the year), while developed countries have still to show real evidence that they are on the verge of a strong restart and are set to show stronger growth figures then what they have done over the past 8 years or so. As has been mentioned countless times, Allied's George Lazaridis says, the main promise for the market is still mainly reliant on the fact that the fleet has stopped its exponential growth and that we are finding ourselves with a heavily diminished order-book compared to the in service fleet.

This means that the balance between demand and supply will start to swing more and more into the favour of the ship owner. In order however for the market to really start “kicking” we will need the other side of the equation that is demand, to also show a bullish face, Allied concluded in its latest weekly  report.


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