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Monday, 14 September 09
BOOM FORECAST FOR COAL OUTPUT


SMH.com reported that, A COAL investment boom is driving Australian production to new peaks even as our biggest export markets shift towards cleaner fuels.

Over the next five years Australia's coal production is set to bulge by 30 per cent to a record 450 million tonnes a year compared with 350 million tonnes produced now, according to the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

The firm said 13 new coalmines, adding to 120 already in operation, would come online by 2015, with $23 billion to be invested in the sector over the same period.

The incoming government of Japan has joined other developed countries by promising to slash its carbon emissions to 25 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020. Analysts say this may trigger a shift in Japan away from coal in favour of cleaner fuels, though the target is not yet enshrined in legislation.

''On the face of it, it definitely means less demand for coal,'' a senior economist at Westpac, Justin Smirk, said.

''You will see a shift at the margins away from coal towards gas and nuclear, but other than that it's pretty hard to put firm estimates around it until we know more about the policies and how they are going to be implemented''.

Coal is Australia's most valuable export, worth $54.6 billion last financial year.

Japan bought 45 per cent of the country's coal in the 2008 calendar year, with about 55 per cent of it thermal coal burned in power stations and the remainder used in steel mills.

In 2004 the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said total coal sales to Japan would fall by as much as a quarter if the country set an emissions target, though Korea and Taiwan would pick up some of the slack.

Coal projects that are under construction or have been signed off were worth a record $10.4 billion in April, bureau figures show, and a further $12 billion was set aside for less certain projects.

But miners deny demand will fall because of Japan's greenhouse gas cuts. A spokesman for the Minerals Council of Australia pointed to figures showing Japan planned to add 2940 megawatts of coal-fired power plants between now and 2016.

''As far as Japan's concerned there's going to be strong growth in their energy requirements and coal-fired power will meet a considerable portion of their demand,'' the spokesman said.

India is seen as a growing market after officials this month visited Australia in search of thermal coal investments to meet a growing shortfall. Some analysts also see China as a growing market despite its extensive reserves.

A spokesman for the Minister for Resources and Energy, Martin Ferguson, said cuts to emissions would encourage clean energy technology rather than lower coal demand.

''Japan faces the same challenge as Australia, the US and China, as an economy highly dependent on coal for electricity … to make significant CO2 emission reductions while maintaining energy security,'' he said.
Source: SMH



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