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Wednesday, 22 March 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS UNDOUBTEDLY REBOUNDED SINCE THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
IntermodalThe Dry Bulk market has undoubtedly rebounded since the same period last year and currently enjoys healthier freight rates. The positive reversal in earnings that showed its first signs during the end of last year has today become a reality that has led asset prices into an impressive rally during the first quarter of 2017.  It is no wonder that a big number of shipping companies are steadily differentiating from more reserved strategies followed during the historical lows of 2016 and currently revisit the idea of investing in the secondhand market with additional vessels or to renew their fleet altogether.

In the meantime it is clear that the average life cycle of a Bulk Carrier has decreased. The majority of purchase enquires in the Dry sector concerns vessels from prompt resale up to maximum 15 years of age, in contrast to 2013 when purchase enquiries were mainly for vessels of around 20 years old and 2010 when 25 year old vessels were more popular.
A shorter vessel life cycle combined with increased purchase appetite, luck of ample sale candidates along and firmer demolition prices have caused a "boom" in asset prices of both modern and older tonnages in a rather short period of time. It is no wonder that voices raising concern that current asset prices might be inflated are getting louder. But are these concerns excused?

The table below illustrates the price of a 10-year old Japanese Supramax during the past five years at times when the Baltic Supramax Index was at levels similar to todays.

It is clear that a 10-year old Japanese Supramax vessel, valued at around $10.0m according to the latest sale- is still very cheap compared to oldest sales during times when the index was at the same levels and the orderbook for the size was substantially higher.

The following sales further support the argument that prices today are higher when compared to last November but certainly not inflated at all when compared to previous years.

The M/V Admiral Schmidt (55,000 dwt, blt 07, Japan) was sold at $9.8m in early March 2017.

In September 2014 the ex-M/V Sea Lily (52,000 dwt, blt 04, Japan) was sold at $15.7m.

In May 2013 the ex-M/V Ultra Paguera (53,600 dwt, blt 03, Japan) exchanged hands for $14.8m.

Finally, in July 2012 the ex- M/V Vega Eternity (52,400 dwt, blt 02, Japan) was sold for $16.8m.

To sum up, it seems that the improvement in today’s prices is not the result of a market bubble that has led to inflated prices but merely a delayed correction, which has shocked perspective buyers only because it has taken place in such a short period of time. More importantly, looking into previous years, it seems that there is more room for further correction and we will most probably witness additional price increases sooner rather than later.
By Konstantinos Kontomichis
SnP Broker
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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