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Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
IntermodalOver the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the upcoming weeks. Generally, healthier freight rates have given a boost in sales, and from the beginning of the year 36 SnP deals are being fixed on average per week, with the majority of those being Bulk Carriers. In relation to the Capesize segment, the chart below compares the same dry indices of the last 8 years versus the underlying asset prices.

It has become apparent that potential buyers can purchase a cape at fairly good levels compared to previous years when the BCI was stayed the same levels, hence so far so good!
 

However, as iron ore is the main cargo for Capesize vessels, it is interesting to examine how the commodity has performed from the beginning of the year and what are the forecasts for 2017.

Almost all commodities from the beginning of the year are on the high side with Iron Ore and other industrial metals being the prime gainers. The trade surplus is increasing and is on a positive trend, after the previous bad year. To put things into perspective, from December 2016 iron ore has made a full U-turn from the previous year’s devastating losses and has hit $US90/t, with Iron Ore prices doubling from the December 2014 prices, driven by the strong Chinese iron ore demand, which in turn has driven Cape rates above $12,000 per day. However, after a long rally in Iron Ore prices, there are signs of a reversal of the recent trend.  Since Tuesday (7/03/2017), Iron Ore prices have continuously declined, raising concerns from many market analysts about the sustainability of a long-term upward trend. The main reason behind this decline is the flagging strength of demand in China at a time when iron ore stocks are continually rising. As a result, some analysts predict that the Iron Ore price will again fall to $US50/t by the end of the year. But can a ship-owner hedge against this risk?

To conclude, the Dry market is witnessing a positive market trend, yet analysts are prepared for the worst. In the wet market, it will be interesting to see the market reaction after the recent drop in crude oil prices below $50/bl.

This is on the back of record U.S. inventories that have now completely wiped off the boost on prices that the OPEC production cut had caused.
By George Panagopoulos
Research Analyst

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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