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Thursday, 09 March 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE DROPPED FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN MARCH, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWED
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price dropped for a fourth straight month in March, government data showed. The HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has declined 1.70 percent and it sank to $81.90 per ton for March 2017 delivery, its lowest level in nearly 5 months.
The highest monthly average HBA decreased occurred in February 2017 since the establishment of HBA or since February 2009. Interestingly, the highest monthly average HBA increase occurred in December 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the coal regulator of Indonesia who has an authority to declare the monthly benchmark price for Indonesian thermal coal, had declared March 2017 HBA at US$ 81.90 per ton for 6322 GAR power plant coal.
DGoMC has decreased the monthly Indonesian thermal coal price reference for March delivery by 1.70% a ton.
In the meantime, the March 2017 HBA was 58.66% higher the comparable period in 2016.
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The Indonesian coal price reference of March 2017 declines US$ 1.42 a ton from February 2017. An increase or decrease in four international coal indices such as ICI-1, Platts-5900, NEX and GC will cause an increase or decrease in Indonesian coal price reference every month, as HBA is linked to those indices.
The coal price reference in Indonesia was established to fulfill the requirement of mining law 04/2009 and ministerial decree No.17/2010. In addition to that, it aims to increase government revenue from royalties from coal producers.
According to the data from Director General shows that the government has fixed US$ 20.24 a ton (up 58.62% Y/Y and down 1.70% month on month) for the coal with calorific value 2,995 kcal/kg on GAR with total moisture 50.10% on as received basis for March 2017 FOB vessel delivery. In the meantime, the government is also declared US$ 58.12 per ton as HPB for 5000 GAR coal with total moisture 22.40%, Ash 8.90% and Sulphur 0.54% for March 2017 deliveries.
The declared Indonesia thermal coal reference price (or called HBA) for February 2016 was the lowest in 99 months or since launching of HBA by the government of Indonesia. The royalties and taxes will be calculated based on this declared HPB. Interestingly, the highest monthly average price occurred in February 2011, while the lowest coal price also occurred in February 2016.
Indonesian coal benchmark price for March 2017 was calculated based on calorific value of 6,322 kcal/kg (GAR), stated to be using a formula based on the January 2017 index average of ICI-1 (Indonesia Coal Index) 25%, Platts-5900 25%, NEX (Newcastle Export Index) 25%, and GC (globalCoal Index) 25% and its was calculated considering coal with GCV (GAR) 6,322 kcal/kg, Total Moisture (arb) 8.00%, Total Sulphur 0.8% (arb), Ash Content 15 % (arb) and delivery free on Board (FOB) Vessel basis and apply to spot contract, delivery between 1 – 31 March 2017.
The highest benchmark price was declared by the Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia in February 2011, and this month’s declared price is around US$ 45.15 a ton or 35.54 per cent lower compared to Feb’ 11 benchmark price. In the meantime, this month’s declared price was around US$ 30.98 a ton or 60.84 per cent higher compared to Feb’ 16 benchmark price, which was the lowest price ever declared by DGoMC.
The government of Indonesia was publishing a monthly coal price reference (HBA & HPB) since February 2009 to be used by coal producers for all spot and term contracts.
However, the official implementation of HBA was commenced since September 2011 and according to government regulation, the coal benchmark price must be used by the holders of production operation IUPs, special production operation IUP's, and CCoWs as a reference in determining the coal selling price for a particular period.
HBA of February 2011 was the highest since the launching of HBA by the government of Indonesia (US$ 127.05 / MT for 6322 GAR coal) and the lowest was declared in February 2016 (US$ 50.92 / MT).
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The declared HBA in this month is valid for the spot price (loading on or before 31 March 2017), while as for term price (up to 12 months supply), the average reference price (HPB) of the previous three months will be used to determine the selling price. (50% of the latest available month's HPB (this month) 30% one month prior HPB and 20% of two-month prior HPB).
The government is also declaring the price marker for eight brands of Indonesia's coal, which are most commonly traded in the market. Those eight brands act as the benchmark and used to calculate other 67 coal types with a quality similar to the coal price markers.
Indonesian coal prices have started to move towards South since mid of November after rallying for around 6 months in 2016. China ’s production cuts relaxation caused lesser imports into China, which pushed down the global coal price from its recent rally. The market players are forecasting that the coal prices will likely stay flat or stable in this quarter.
The coal market was oversupplied due to high production and sluggish demand for coal consuming countries in the past few years. Once the real tight supply market established, we hope it will keep the coal prices at a stable level in the coming months/years. However, in fact, the change in China’s coal output directions will always play a major role to decide the direction of coal prices in the short term.
Indonesia today’s world’s largest coal exporter, is trying to push more coal to domestic market than export market. Once Indonesia’s 35000 MW power plant ambition comes into reality, then coal exports from Indonesia expected to be reduced drastically compared to current levels.
Click here for full details of Indonesian coal price reference since January 2009.(cs)
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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