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Wednesday, 08 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET TODAY PROVIDES MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO LAST YEAR - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 So what's all the fuss about? During the past five months SnP activity has being surging exponentially in the dry bulk sector. Buyers are looking to get their hands on any size within a big range of modern tonnage varying from small Handies to Newcastlemaxes.
Even if prices are more than 25% higher now than what they were eight months ago, modern ships are still relatively cheap. A good example is the “Billion Trader I”(82kdwt blt 07 Tsuneishi, Japan) and the “Billion Trader II” (82kdwt blt 07 Tsuneishi, Japan), two sister ships reported sold eight months apart. The “Billion Trader I” was sold USD 9.5 million in June 2016 and the “Billion Trader II” was sold in February 2017, 3 million more. Still USD 12,5 million for a 10-year old Japanese Kamsarmax is a lot cheaper compared to the USD 21,5 million the ex- “Million Trader II” (76kdwt blt 04 Tsuneishi, Japan )was sold at three years ago in February 2014.
Yes, the freight market today provides much more confidence compared to last year, but the reason Principals are going after tonnage with such a huge appetite is because they are seeing the bigger picture, which is not ugly anymore. The signs that we are heading towards a healthier dry bulk market are clearly visible and improving fundamentals are in place. Actually they have been in place for some time now and we had been discussing them in the past but the rock- bottom hire rates of late-2015 and early-2016 made it impossible for most to take notice.
Now the diminishing order-book, the implementation of regulations and a steady demand for transportation of cargo provide the necessary confidence for buyers to invest. On top of these factors we have to add the scarcity of finance for NB orders. In the recent past a number of banks that were known for providing shipping finance have either reduced their portfolio or exited the industry all together. The financial institutions that took over these portfolios are very cautious and seem to have learnt by the past mistakes of their peers. So far they are demonstrating a selective resistance in backing new orders for bulk carriers.
Of course the way the second-hand market is heading, we won’t be surprised if sooner rather than later NB slots will make more sense than ships in the water. But the problem will not be the controlled and strategic orders from established owners with years of experience in shipping. The key (or the challenge) will be to avoid big orders similar to those witnessed five years ago. If the ordering stays in check for the next four years then we are certainly heading towards better days.
The skeptics keep saying that moving on speculation is not wise but the truth is that this time buyers are taking educated risks backed by facts and not plain “gut” feeling or speculative decisions.
So the fuss is not about having to invest now because the market is booming and returns are exceptional. The fuss is that for the first time since 2008 things are promising and that numbers back that promise. Again you don't have to invest, but why wouldn't you? The next question is; how long this window will remain open? That is yet to be seen. Grain season is on its way and freight rates should rise, which logically will also result in even higher asset prices. We have to see how the market will react and if Buyers will take a step back or continue to pursuit opportunities in the second-hand market.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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