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Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
AlliedThe end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally coming to an end, while at the same time many starting to see several silver linings in the horizon from where they could argue that we were slowly moving on course to better days for the global economy said, Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.

According to George Lazaridis Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, it hasn’t just been over a month that we have coursed in 2017 and despite the markets having shown some considerable improvement compared to what we were seeing during the same time a year ago, yet a multitude of market disruptors seem to be out on the loose and ready to spark havoc if there are let to their own accord.

The upbeat approach towards Trump’s Presidency, as many took belief that the central focus of his policies would shift away from what his pre-election campaign focused on and that it would ride off the back of more reasoned approach with his term putting central focus on corporate-tax reform, a rollback of regulations and new fiscal stimulus. However as things would stand it looks as though the main spot light has gone back to immigration and trade, causing a revaluation amongst many in the market as to the extent these disruptions could set us back. If that wasn’t enough, we are looking at a rise in similar disruptors in the political scene of Europe, Allied says in its latest weekly report.

Allied further noted, how harmful could these populist policies really be? Well that is something we have heavily debated over the past twelve months. The big concern however is becoming more and more as to the effects they could bring onto emerging markets. Many of the commodity-led of these have already been facing difficulties within 2016, faced by the collapse in the commodities markets during 1Q2016. Difficulties followed in suite as the U.S. dollar started to gain in strength bringing many of these economies to face ever growing debt. What we now face however, is a threat to many emerging markets with export-led growth. Economies such as Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and to some extent China as well, countries which have been “riding on the ticket” of supplying the American consumer, are all becoming possible targets of American protectionism. At the same time it seems as though some commodity-led economies are even willing to shoot themselves in the foot through equally foolhardy politicians, as is the case of the Philippines which under its new President Rodrigo Duterte has now taken the decision to close off mines within the country that in total produce around 8 per cent of the world’s nickel supply.

George Lazaridis further said in its weekly report, yet despite all of these developments, we are still riding on a wave of market improvement, with the global trade of most commodities still showing signs of improving growth. On this trend is where we see the dry bulk market showing a fair improvement over the next couple of months, though what has become clear from the points mentioned above is that nothing is ever certain. A positive note to take under consideration however, is that the market is now better placed than ever to be able to tackle any potential market disruptions. These disruptions could cause a further delay in the recovery process, though as of yet we haven’t seen any conclusive indications that we are set to head in that direction just yet. At the same time the world economy has changed considerably over the past 10 years, with new major economies such as China ready to provide its consumers’ increased purchasing power as a stepping stone for emerging market growth, while China itself uses it as a way to further increase its soft power on the world economy. 


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