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Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry bulker shipbuilding. Adjusting for dwt, this would imply today $32m and $27.8m for 172kdwt and 150kdwt Capesize newbuilding, respectively. What a coincidence: in 1999 the 172kdwt Cape new buildings were placed for as low as $32m, while in 1986 the 150kdwt new buildings were placed for around $27m. All of the above are mentioned in nominal terms (not real dollars, ignoring inflation). It appears the $185/dwt is an intertemporal true (sub-)cost level for large dry bulkers.
The -once gigantic- dry bulk order book has been rapidly correcting itself. From its 2009 peak at 78% order book to fleet ratio, it is now constrained to 9% of the fleet, the lowest in 15 years. The dry bulk newbuilding slippage last year stood at 47%; in fact, the Kamsarmax newbuilding delivery rate was only 49%. While we currently face a strong wave of newbuilding deliveries (in January thus far we have 16 Capes, 26 Kamsarmaxes, 40 Ultras and 17 Handies delivered) due to the units queued/slipped from last year, we forecast that in 2017q2 the order book will stand at 6% of the fleet, which is the lowest on record.
In the meantime, at the other end of a vessel’s life, we witnessed about 8 Capesizes and 8 Panamaxes built after 2000 being scrapped during last year. The recent scrapping of a 2002 Panamax by China COSCO Shipping paves the way forward for additional 2000s tonnage to be demolished. The vast majority of these bulkers were scrapped from Chinese and Japanese Owners, a fact that we should praise (we also praise the relevant incentives for scrapping). The Sulphur cap together with the with IMO's recent ratification of Ballast Water Management convention will catalyze the accelerated scrapping over the next years. Thankfully, the overage (over 15-year-old) fleet is double the size of new buildings. The order book to vintage fleet ratio is especially attractive for Handy and Panamax newbuilding.
Order responsibly!
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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