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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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