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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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