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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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