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Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
 COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze power producers' margins in 2017, says Fitch Ratings. Margins are also expected to suffer as more electricity is sold under direct power sales (DPS) programmes at a discount to the benchmark on-grid tariff as well as from falling plant utilisation levels.
China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on 4 January 2017 that the benchmark on-grid tariff for coal-fired power will remain unchanged in 2017, despite a strong coal price rally starting from 3Q16.
Fitch further noted that, China introduced a coal price pass-through mechanism in early 2016, which specifies that coal-fired power generators' on-grid tariff will be reviewed at the start of each year to reflect coal price changes in the previous year. In this week's announcement, the NDRC further specified that the average NDRC national coal price index from November 2015 to October 2016 was used as reference to decide the tariff pass-through amount. According to the price formula, on-grid tariff should increase by CNY0.18 cents per kilowatt hour (KWh) to reflect the coal price change in that period. However, changes less than CNY0.2 cent/KWh will not be made, but will accumulate into the next review period.
Although the current Qinghuangdao seaborne coal price is already 15% lower than its peak in 2016 due to NDRC measures to increase coal supply and contain coal prices, it remains more than 30% higher than the average 2016 price as coal prices were much lower in 1H16. We expect coal prices to fall further with policy intervention; however, the average 2017 coal price, especially in 1H17, is likely to be higher than for the same period last year. As such, dark spread - the difference between power tariffs and unit coal costs - for coal-fired power generators will be lower than in 2015 and early-2016.
At the same time, Fitch said, power volumes sold under DPS are increasing. The NDRC reports that power sold under DPS increased to 700 billion KWh in 2016, up from 430 billion KWh in the previous year. This represents around 12% of China's total power demand or 17% of power demand from the energy-intensive secondary industry, which accounted for around 71% of the country's total power consumption in 2016. According to NDRC, the average discount on DPS is around CNY6.4 cent/KWh, which is around 18% of China's national average on-grid tariff.
However, Fitch estimates the discount for power sold under DPS is around 20% in regions with higher power demand and less competition, and 30% or higher in regions that suffer more from power overcapacity. Coal-fired power generators' dark spread is likely to be further squeezed as China aims to expand the scale of DPS in 2017.
We also expect coal-fired power utilisation hours to decline with slowing power demand growth and still-high capacity additions. We expect some smaller players are likely to be loss-making and forced out of the market, while large-scale and highly-efficient power generators or power-heat co-generation generators in regions with stable power demand or access to lower-cost coal will be final winners under these changes taking place in China electricity market, Fitch concluded.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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