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Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS

As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and looking forward to what looks to be better days ahead.

The New Year does leave some promise for improvements especially in the Dry Bulk market says George Lazaridis of Allied. Financial markets and commodity markets have already showed considerable improvement and renewed optimism, something that promises to slowly start being reflected in the freight markets too and if it does show its face, it comes at a good point with many ship-owners having been considerably squeezed in terms of cash flow over the past 12 months.

According to Allied, this time, last year we were already facing one of the most worrying downward slides in dry bulk freight markets, while other sectors were also being shaken up by the turmoil that was brewing under the surface. These difficulties helped push the ship owning community into action, with a program of intense demolition activity taking place in the early months of the year, coupled with a strong restrain from new ordering and increased cancellations and delays being noted on the new building delivery schedule that was at hand. This all has allowed for a better balance of the supply of tonnage, while also allowing for a more manageable order book schedule and size to develop for the upcoming years.

Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied George Lazaridis says his latest weekly analysis that, the political turmoil that has characterized the past couple of months has been one of the main disruptors of trade and economic growth, in effect causing much of the demand side headaches that we have witnessed. 2017 does not promise for more stability in this regard and if anything, we have many more political hurdles to overcome over the next couple of months. Despite this there seems to be a growing optimism being developed in the global markets and although this might be misplaced to some degree, it does help to point out the fact that there are considerably better odds now of trade showing better figures then it showed in both 2015 and 2016. In the past, this alone would have not been enough, given that new orders continually pilled in and swamped any trade and economic growth that was in the single figures range. As we are now, it seems that we are well placed to even deal with similar trade growth figures as those we have witnessed over the past two years. This however would not be enough to really breath life back into shipping markets, but rather to just help troubled owners continue to limp along for a little while longer. The hope is that we have better days to look forward to and while the big obstacles ahead will be related to the health of the U.S., Chinese and European economies, major driving markets for the global trade, it looks as though that even under the worst-case scenarios the events that would unfold would not be catastrophic in a similar manner to that which was witnessed in the collapse of 2008. Trade has also come to an important cross road right now. Political decision that is to be made within the next couple of years will either put it back on course for further openness to trade and lifting of trade barriers, or increased emphasis on self-reliance and the breakdown of further trade cooperation, with the latter unlikely to hold well as its true price starts to take hold.



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